Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
